Thomas Crampton has a good post and video on how policy leaders believe China would vote for Obama. Why:

China would vote for Obama in part because he is from a minority ethnic group, said Shen Dingli of Shanghai’s Fudan University.

Of course rightly notes the irony:

Somewhat ironic to poll people living in countries with varying levels of electoral and dictatorial governments about how they feel about the US elections. Wonder how Myanmar would vote? Imagine Vietnam is pro-McCain. Anyone know?

His post reminds me of something I forgot to mention when I went to the Asia Foundation’s talk back in February on the role of governance. One of the many hopes for the world, and even those who live under dictatorships, is for America to right itself after this administration and once again show why America is often seen as the best hope for humanity and for the rights of anyone.

All the panelists agreed how the current administration has reduced our standing in the world to the lowest ever with such vitriol dislike, but that, with just the election of Barack Obama, America would make up half of the harm it has done. The semi-joke being Africa is happy and with a middle name of ‘Hussein’ Middle Easterners are then impressed as well seeing how America really does stand up to its unique and moral values every so often.

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Because I enjoy politics (international politics all the more), I had to put in my two cents on what I believe the outcome will be for the upcoming election. These are of course my own personal guesses, so feel free to mock me if/when I’m wrong post-November. The images come courtesy of 270towin.com, even providing for the unique electoral situations in Nebraska and Maine!

Let’s begin by showing my “Realistic Prediction” (ie: what I believe the outcome will be):

A best case scenario:

followed by a worst case scenario:

Only time will tell of course… thoughts?

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They really really do!

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The Moderate Voice has a must read interview about David Frum’s thoughts on how Conservatives will have to change towards the future in order to make a comeback into American politics. From a marketing perspective, I feel that this is the right way for Conservatives, even if I do not necessarily agree with all the policies.

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Ron Paul could not win in New Hampshire with independents in the Republican Party in the most libertarian state of the nation, and therefore in my opinion I am calling it now for the end of Ron Paul’s candidacy. Sure, he can pull a Howard Dean and get some great/cushy position after the fact, but as of trying to win the Presidency, if the libertarian guy cannot do well in a libertarian state, then explain how he can do well anywhere else?

Essentially it’s like Guiliani not winning the race in New York–if he cannot win in the state where he should be the most popular–then he certainly is not going to do any better elsewhere.

Hate mail be damned, Ron Paul is effectively finished in his run for the Presidency.

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Great information by Andrew Sullivan:

Tonight was in many ways devastating news for the GOP. Twice as many people turned out for the Democrats than the Republicans. Clearly independents prefer the Dems.

Now look at how the caucus-goers defined themselves in the entrance polls. Among the Dems: Very Liberal: 18 percent; Somewhat Liberal: 36 percent; Moderate: 40 percent; Conservative: 6 percent. Now check out the Republicans: Very Conservative: 45 percent; Somewhat Conservative: 43 percent; Moderate: 11 percent; Liberal: 1 percent.

One is a national party; the other is on its way to being an ideological church. The damage Bush and Rove have done - revealed in 2006 - is now inescapable.

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Investigation time for the CIA and where it could lead–read Glenn Greenwald and Emptywheel for superb details.

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This is essentially in response to Aaron Wall’s post about the next US President being bad marketers (Note that this is about US Presidential Candidates and their direct staff, not about those indirectly affiliated like in Ron Paul’s case).

1. Presidential Candidates and DC elites are technophobes or just plain technologically ignorant (series of tubes anyone?)
2. Those running for President have to study a lot about politics and really have no time to learn about new ways to market themselves.
3. Candidates being even closely aligned with marketing or advertising agencies could receive a lot of bad press (-5 million sinks).
4. Marketers and advertisers want to make money now, not give money back as tax cuts if their candidate wins.
5. Young people talk about voting, but in comparison to older age groups, never do (Sorry Ron Paul / Dean supporters, love to be proved wrong in the next election though).

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Read the NYT’s article about the CIA torture tapes and weep for how America is falling.

Then read the post by Scott Horton and feel ashamed for what’s transpired.

I believe in the transparency of democracy and how evil men will be found out and punished (most of the time) for what has been done to sully America’s name, but I wonder how long and how will it happen (if at all).

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For the most part, the libertarians I run across and are friends with are usually not very religious, so it struck me as rather odd to see a very libertarian candidate (Ron Paul) note that he does not accept evolution. Makes me wonder whether that could put a crimp in some of his supporters as libertarians are not necessarily the bunch who will not accept with so much factual basis behind it.

Personally, any candidate that is not willing to change one’s belief when the facts are right in front of you is certainly not a candidate for me to support. The commenter on Andrew Sullivan’s blog says it well:

A reader writes:

I too, wanted to pretend like I didn’t see that video of Ron Paul saying that he can’t accept Evolution.  I admire the man.  He is clearly the most legitimate GOP candidate.  But this has completely damaged my perception of him.  As an Athiest, I often find it absoultely mind-boggling that so many people in the United States, in this day and age, can still deny that Evolution is real.  But the truth is, while pretty much any person you meet who doesn’t believe in Evolution is doing so for religous reasons, it is important to note that this issue goes far deeper than just religion itself.  After all, the present day Vatican, and even Pope Benedict have a very sober stance towards Evolution.  So this to me, highlights why Paul’s denial of Evolution is such a big deal.

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